Reverting to my old strategy to reduce risk…

TL;DR

1. My mechanical strategy fails… 14 losing streak!
2. Deep Apologies to my premium group member.
3. Reverting to Original Strategy

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. The content for this article is purely for educational/research purposes only and is merely based on my personal opinions.

Please note: There will be affiliate links in this article. But it will only benefit both of us. If you do not wish to participate under my affiliate links, please feel free to Google them separately. Cheers!

Isincerely apologize to my premium group members for the recent past 14 losing trades… The poor performance of my mechanical strategy in April has been unexpected. Let me explain.

What happened

The recent market conditions have been challenging for my mechanical strategy. Over the past few weeks, gold (the only pair I’m trading) has been caught in significant volatility, partly driven by the ongoing tensions and potential conflict involving Israel and coupled with the strong US market data, which have led to substantial price fluctuations.

My mechanical strategy is primarily based on a fixed set of technical analysis, with zero reliance on fundamental analysis. I determine the direction bias by observing the first-hour candlestick, which closes either above or below the 21 EMA. Once the direction is established, I use the Fibonacci Retracement tool to set up the trade parameters, including entry, stop loss, and take profit levels.

I am also trading the same strategy, my funded account was severely affected as well. My account was down 90%! One more of the losing trade will blow my account entirely.

Reason — Greedy

Because of my greediness, I made the mistake of continuously modifying my strategy to increase total returns, totally disregarding the potential impact on my win rate. I failed to realize that increasing the number of losing trades could lead to a higher risk of losing streaks or even jeopardizing my funded account. Worst of all, I drag down my premium subscribers' trust and drag them down too.

Strategy Comparison

Original Strategy

My original strategy had an average win rate of 64% and a total return on capital of 40%. Take an example take above, the original strategy was able to capture some profit at take profit 1. Although it did not manage to go take profit 2, at least we can in profit for the rest of the day.

Current Strategy

In contrast, the modified version showed a higher total return of 60% but with a reduced win rate of 51%. Let’s look at the same example, the take profit 1 was shifted to 100%, and the entire trade ended in a loss, losing money in the end. This lower win rate resulted in an increased likelihood of experiencing multiple losing trades, which unfortunately materialized.

I must take full responsibility, as I deviated from my original strategy which could have reduced the losses.

Next Action Plan

1. For future trades and Signal newsletter, I will revert back to the original strategy to hopefully reduce the losses and recoup some money.
2. Only 1x trade signal will be provided this time. This is to reduce risk exposure.
3. I will backtest and forward-test any new strategy in my own personal account to prevent similar situations from happening.
4. I will be allowing anyone to join for FREE for a month, please refer to the details below.

Complimentary Paid Newsletter For a Month

As part of my apologies. I will allow anyone to join the Premium Newsletter for a month. Please email me at barrygamestrading@gmail.com

1. Your Email Address
2. Name

Endnote

Again I deeply apologise for the unfortunate losing streak. But I am not giving up, let’s continue to work hard until we see success!

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